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Victor Bahous

DBA Graduate - 2004

Thesis title

The predictive power of internet technology in studying the effect of socio-economic variables on stock trade in emerging markets: case of Lebanon


Jean-Jacques Chanaron-Externe
. Procter & Gamble
This research focuses on the predictive power of Internet technology for studying the effect of socioeconomic variables on stock trades in emerging countries in the specific context of Lebanon. Specifically, this research examines the role of socioeconomic variables for explaining a country’s unique factors, such as its risk profile; the use of Internet technology can provide a catalyst for developing stock trades in emerging markets. To test the research problem, this study uses logistic regression, which can handle both metric and nonmetric independent variables and still predict a binary dependent variable. The research findings are robust and include a significant effect of socioeconomic variables (country-specific, unique risk) on the stock trade in the Lebanese market. In addition, Internet technology exhibits significant predictive power with regard to stock trade. Recommendations for further studies include testing other dimensions of country-specific factors, considering socioeconomic variables (or citizens’ personal values) in other emerging countries, using Internet technology as a means to accelerate stock trade development, and looking for other factors that may affect stock returns but that have not yet been defined in the field of finance.